The Scarcity Heuristic
People want what they can't have. And the more scarce that thing is, the more valuable it is.
As weird as it seems, sometimes the most impactful way to make a brand more desirable is to limit people's ability to buy it or see it.
If you've never watched ‘The Young Pope’ HBO Series, it's the fictional story of World's first American Pope.
In the first season of ‘The Young Pope’, there's this powerful scene that should be studied in business & marketing schools.
Months after being elected by the College of Cardinals, Lenny Belardo AKA Pope Pius XIII (Jude Law) finally addresses the Cardinals for the first time.
Pope Pius XIII shocks the Cardinals with his gran opening: a “knock knock” joke.
“Knock knock. We're not in", says Pius XIII.
Then Pius XIII adds, "Brother Cardinals, from this day forward, we're not in no matter who's knocking on our door."
Pius XIII also says, "We're in, but only for God. From this day forward, everything that was wide open, is going to be closed.
Then Pius XIII explains what he means, "Brother Cardinals, we need to go back to being prohibited. Inaccessible and mysterious. That's the only way we will once again become desirable. That's the only way great love stories are born."
And he goes deeper, "And I don't want any more part-time believers. I want great love stories. I want fanatics for God. Because fanaticism is love. Everything else is strictly a substitute and stays outside the Church."
What's fascinating about this scene is that Pius XIII is citing the scarcity heuristic.
Robert Cialdini is the Regents' Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Marketing at Arizona State University. Many folks call him "The Godfather of influence".
And the scarcity heuristic is a concept developed by Cialdini.
The basic idea? "When an object or resource is less readily available, we tend to perceive it as more valuable."
Looking for a way in 2024 to stand out in a crowded product category? Pope Pius XIII might have the answer.
People want what they can't have. And the more scarce that thing is, the more valuable it is.
Takeaways for your business:
1. Things that can't be easily bought or seen become more valuable.
"The Vatican survives thanks to hyperbole" in the holy scriptures. So in order to survive and to make the Catholic Church more desirable, Pope Pius XIII generated hyperbole. "But this time in reverse."
By not allowing himself to be seen OR photographed in public, Pope Pius XIII made himself unreachable. Like a rock star who never gives interviews. And that's how he became more popular and valuable.
2. The scarcity heuristic is based on a phenomenon known in Psychology as Psychological reactance. It is also known as The Streisand Effect (named after singer Barbra Streisand).
And it states that when our freedom is under attack, humans tend to feel more motivated to restore that freedom.
(Side note: Ever wondered why the anti-vaxxers movement is growing so fast all over the World? Psychological reactance theory explains it. You betcha! ).
The scarcity heuristic has 4 versions: Quantity, Rarity, Time, and Censorship. Study each one of them and figure out how you can use them differently.
- Quantity: See how KFC Australia reframed the perceived value of their $1.00 french fries with the campaign "A deal so good you can only buy four”.
- Rarity: See how MSCHF Sold 999 Forged (and 1 Real) Andy Warhol Sketches For $250 A Piece.
- Time: When Australian watchmaker The 5TH launched in December 2014, they came up with a new concept that took advantage of the scarcity heuristic, but with a genius twist.
And thanks to this genius twist The 5TH hit $1 million in sales in December 2015: "The 5TH sells high-end timepieces on the fifth of each month, for only five days."
- Censorship: See how Netflix Thailand hijacked censorship to promote Narcos Mexico.
